NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Season Finale.
As we head into the last weekend of the NFL regular season, just two play-off spots remain open. However, a great deal more is on the line, such as the highly desired #1 rankings in each conference and several divisional crowns.
The schedule makers have produced a perfect finale, with the final two postseason places to be decided in two direct winner-take-all matchups.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
AFC Standings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The victor of the Steelers-Ravens game will secure the #4 spot and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. At the same time, the Bills and the Chargers are locked in as wildcard entrants.
The Texans need a victory and a Jacksonville loss to climb from the fifth seed to the third seed. The Broncos will secure the #1 ranking with a win, but a setback could open the door for New England or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the winner of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game, earning them the #4 position. Notably, the Panthers could still claim the division even with a loss, contingent on other results.
The Packers are locked into the seventh spot. The marquee matchup, though, is the clash for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and the 49ers, with a first-round bye and home-field advantage hanging in the balance.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The top seed in both the AFC and NFC earns a valuable first-round bye and home games for the duration of the play-offs.
On the Wild Card round, the other six qualified teams compete: the second seed hosts the #7 team, #3 plays #6, and fourth hosts fifth.
In the second round, the top seeds enter the competition, facing the lowest remaining seed. The AFC and NFC title games are then hosted by the highest seed, highlighting the critical importance of earning that top spot.
AFC North Decider: A Brutal Finale
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This bitter rivalry comes to a head in the last contest of the regular season. With the AFC North and a play-off berth at stake, this is a genuine elimination scenario.
Pittsburgh have been inconsistent all year, while Baltimore started poorly but are still in the hunt. Key injuries could be decisive: Pittsburgh may be without star receiver DK Metcalf, while the Ravens' signal-caller Lamar Jackson is a doubt with a health issue.
Star rusher Derrick Henry might emerge as the x-factor for the Ravens in what is set up as a physical, low-scoring battle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the division title is at stake when Seattle visits the 49ers. The victorious team secures the conference's #1 spot and the path to the championship game that comes with it.
This matchup features an explosive 49ers offense against a stingy Seattle defense. With QB their young passer came back, the 49ers have been the NFL's top offense. Conversely, Seattle's defense is ranked second best in the league.
The Seahawks' QB Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have haunted him this year. Whoever comes out on top gains a massive advantage for the playoff run.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team comes into this game with strong form. The Buccaneers have lost four straight, while Carolina have squandered recent opportunities to secure the title.
For Carolina it's simple: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the situation is trickier. Even with a win, they require another result from the Falcons-Saints matchup to steal the divisional championship.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest key players seals it.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the Patriots. A New England victory coupled with a Broncos loss would hand the #1 ranking to New England.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the long shot. They require a win and losses by both Denver and New England to achieve an improbable ascent to #1. More pressingly, a Jaguars loss could allow them to be overtaken by the Houston Texans in the AFC South.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
