Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
