How This Strange Season Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Mold.
Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.
Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.
But this year's competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.
Here is how the ideal ballot could look.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.
The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.
The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.
During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!
The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.
What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.
Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.
Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.
The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3
Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.
Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.
Still
