Daily Killings in Mexico Decline 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The average figure of per-day homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government statistics. However, security analysts have warned that murder numbers may not indicate improved national security.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when the President began the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded during these months is very notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that last month the lowest amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an apparently steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased coordination between various agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

But, security analysts urged caution that using homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it could mask days when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Using the daily average makes surges of violence unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these actions, Mexico remains beset by high violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to create a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas concluded.